Comparing crypto casino bonuses is hard. Is a 110% bonus with 45x wagering better than a 100% bonus with 40x wagering? Often common sense gives the right answer, but casino bonuses are (probably on purpose) made very hard to compare.
As a solution, I built the Bonus EV model. It shows how much of your money is left (on average) after you have cleared the wagering requirement.
In short: expected final balance = (deposit + bonus) − (wager volume × house edge).
(To be exact, it is a simplified expected value model. It uses the average house edge and ignores luck. But the name describes the idea well.)
This is the updated version of my first article. It now has 9 casinos and the latest bonus terms, which I checked on October 2, 2026.
One more thing: the order in this article is decided by maths only. It is not decided by which casino pays me the most, even though I have affiliate links on my site. This page hasn’t got affiliate links though.
How the Bonus EV model works
Every bonus gets the same starting point, so you can compare them side by side:
- You deposit $100 at every casino.
- The house edge is 4%. This is a standard slot with 96% RTP.
- Free spins are worth $0.10 each. (At FortuneJack it is $0.20, because that is the smallest bet allowed on its spins.)
- Every bet counts 100% toward the wagering. Max bets and game limits are not included.
The main number is the expected final balance. It is how much money you have left after the wagering, on average.
Expected final balance = (deposit + bonus) − (wager volume × house edge)
The wager volume is the total amount you must bet. For example, 35x wagering on a $100 bonus is $3 500.
Example: 7Bit Casino
- You deposit $100 and get a $100 bonus plus 100 free spins ($10). You start with $210.
- The wagering is 35x the bonus: 35 × $100 = $3 500 of bets.
- The 4% house edge takes $3 500 × 4% = $140 while you bet.
- You are left with $210 − $140 = $70, on average. That is −$30 compared with your $100 deposit.
If the expected loss is bigger than your whole balance, I call it a bust. You would most likely lose your deposit before you finish the wagering.
It’s good to notice that ALL match bonuses and free spins bonuses on my site have a negative Net vs. deposit. That means players lose money on average, even when using bonuses. This should not be a surprise, as casinos are businesses made only to extract money from players (sorry for the blunt expression).
Match bonuses ranked by Bonus EV
Here are the five match bonuses I have reviewed. D+B means deposit plus bonus.
| Casino & bonus | Wagering | Expected final balance | Net vs. deposit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7Bit Casino 100% match + 100 free spins | 35x bonus ($3 500) | $70.00 | −$30.00 |
| 2. BitStarz 100% match + 180 free spins | 40x bonus ($4 000) | $58.00 | −$42.00 |
| 3. Coins.game 150% match + 25 free spins | 35x bonus ($5 250) | $42.50 | −$57.50 |
| 4. Wild.io 110% match + 75 free spins | 40x bonus ($4 400) | $41.50 | −$58.50 |
| 5. BC.game 120% match + 100 free spins | 40x D+B ($8 800) | −$122.00 | −$100.00 (bust) |
A bigger match is not always better. The wagering applies to the bonus, so a bigger match means more betting.
This is kind of counter-intuitive, as common sense would say that 110% match (on Wild.io) would be better than 100% match (on BitStarz) with the same 40x wagering requirement, but IT’S NOT!
Here is why: at a 4% house edge, each bonus dollar with 40x wagering costs you 40 × 4% = $1.60 in expected loss. So a bonus only adds value if the wagering is below 25x. Even without the free spins, BitStarz ends $6 ahead of Wild.io.
A few points from the table above:
- 7Bit Casino has a normal 100% match, but its 35x wagering means you only bet $3 500. It loses the least on average.
- Coins.game gives 150%, but you must bet $5 250. It ends at $42.50.
- At BC.game the wagering also covers your deposit. You must bet $8 800, so the result is a bust.
Cashback and rakeback
Cashback and rakeback usually have no wagering requirement. So a final balance does not fit here. Instead, I count how much money they pay back to you:
- Cashback pays a percentage of your net losses.
- Rakeback pays a percentage of the house edge on every bet you make, win or lose.
Both depend on how much you bet. I use three player types: Casual ($5 000 of bets per month), Regular ($25 000) and High roller ($250 000). Here are the numbers for a Regular player:
| Bonus | What you get | Regular player gets |
|---|---|---|
| Wild.io cashback | 20% weekly for 2 weeks (deposit $1 500 or more) | $100 in 2 weeks |
| Coins.game cashback | 10% of daily net losses for 7 days | $25 in 7 days |
| Cloudbet rakeback | 10% of the house edge for 30 days (max $2 500) | $100 in 30 days, then it ends |
| Stake rakeback | 3.5% of the house edge, for life | $35 in 30 days $420 in 12 months |
Wild.io pays four times more than Coins.game for the same betting. But you need to deposit $1 500 or more. Coins.game starts from $20.
Cloudbet pays almost three times the rate of Stake, so it is better for the first two months. From month 3, Stake takes the lead, because Cloudbet’s rakeback ends after 30 days and Stake’s does not. With my exclusive bonus, Stake gives you the 3.5% from your first bet.
No deposit bonus and free spins
Crypto.games: $7 no deposit voucher
The voucher is $7 and the wagering is $200. At a 4% house edge, the expected loss on $200 of bets is $8. So $7 − $8 = −$1.00 on average, which counts as a bust.
But you deposit nothing, so your real cost is $0. The price is your time, because Crypto.games asks for full Tier 4 verification (selfie, ID and a utility bill) before you can claim it.
FortuneJack: free spins instead of a match bonus
The “100%” at FortuneJack means one free spin for each $1 you deposit. A spin is worth about $0.20, so the spins are worth only about 20% of your deposit.
- You deposit $100 and bet it 10 times ($1 000) to get 100 free spins, worth $20.
- The spin winnings must be bet 30 times: 30 × $20 = $600.
- Total betting is $1 600. The expected loss is $64.
- Final balance: $100 + $20 − $64 = $56, or −$44.
That is about the same as BitStarz (−$42). FortuneJack needs less betting, but the bonus is also much smaller. It is an average deal.
The Bonus EV model in a nutshell
So what does the Bonus EV model mean for the average player? Here are a few tips:
- Match bonuses: Pick the bonus with the biggest expected final balance. Of these casinos, it is 7Bit Casino with $70. In the long run, it gives the most back to players.
- Cashback: Wild.io pays the most, if you can deposit $1 500 or more. For smaller deposits, pick Coins.game.
- Rakeback: Stake for long play, Cloudbet for the first 30 days.
- Remember: the model does not promise a win. The casino wins most of the time because of the house edge. The model only shows which bonus is better than the others.
What the model does not include
- Max bet rules and time limits (often only 7 days to finish the wagering).
- Game contribution. Slots usually count 100%, table games less.
- Win caps on bonuses and free spins.
- Luck. All numbers are averages over many players. Real results vary a lot.
Bonus terms change often. Always read the full terms in my crypto casino reviews and at the casino before you deposit.
This is a short introduction to the model. For the full list of bonuses, the maths for each type and the latest terms, see my crypto casino bonuses ranked by maths. I add every new casino I review to the model. I also rank every casino by Trust Score.
Cheers,
Jake
